Realistic Multiannual Simulations of the Coupled North Sea and Baltic Sea System Using the Getm Model

This report presents a brief summary of modelling work done for the North Sea/Baltic Sea area within the institutional action ECOMAR (Monitoring and assessment of marine ecosystems) at the Joint Research Centre (JRC). First the underlying model equations are briefly recalled. Then different model setups for the coupled North Sea - Baltic Sea system using the General Estuary Transport Model (GETM) are described.JRC.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Scoping report on the potential impact of on-board desulphurization on the water quality in SOx Emission Control Areas

The input of acid substances (like SO2) into the sea has been recognized as an environmental issue that needs to be considered in terms of ocean acidification; acid inputs and techniques to deal with them have implications for member states' obligations under the Water Framework Directive and Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This study provides an initial assessment on the potential impact of on-board desulphurisation equipment (open loop scrubbers) on the seawater quality with focus on SOx Emission Control Areas (SECAs). The study focuses on the potential impact of ship-borne SO2 on acidification (pH) of seawater in comparison to the impact from climate change. The report comprises a literature study and a dedicated modelling exercise covering the North Sea region. Most available studies and the peer reviewed literature found only a small additional impact from SO2 emissions on acidification in the various investigated parts of the world ocean. However these studies generally assessed spatially averaged effects and regional and coastal oriented studies are mostly lacking from the literature, which means that potential effects to vulnerable ecosystems in such areas have not previously been considered. A coupled hydrodynamic-chemistry model was employed to assess the impact of adding SO2 and CO2 on the complex carbonate system in sea water. The impact on the pH decrease in the open North Sea region from discharging the acid wash water into the seawater was found to be small, but not insignificant, and regionally varying. The calculated annual mean decrease of pH due to SO2 injection for the North Sea total water column is 0.00011; when considering only the change in the surface layer (0-20m), the annual decrease is 0.00024. The total annual impact from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the acidification of the North Sea surface area is about 8 times stronger (0.001) as the impact from wash water injection. However because of the pronounced spatial variations the mean impact does not reflect the overall situation well. Consequently we find critical regions with high ship traffic intensity, for example along the shipping lanes and in the larger Rotterdam port area. Here, the contribution from SO2 injection can be double the impact from increasing CO2 concentrations and 20 times larger than the North Sea mean value. These critical regions indicate potential problems related to the surface water quality in ports, estuaries and coastal waters that fall under regulation under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The problem of decreasing pH caused by SO2 input from ship exhaust gases in regional seas (North Sea) is relevant to the obligation of the Member States to assess the environmental state of their marine areas and to establish a Good Environmental Status (GES) under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MFSD), as pH value is one of the GES criteria.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Potential impact of the sea-ice ecosystem to the polar seas biogeochemistry

We used a one-dimensional vertical transport model, the sympagic-pelagic-benthic vertical transport model (SPBM) to explore the impact of sea-ice presence on phytoplankton phenology and biogeochemical dynamics. In the model, we introduced new parameter values for sympagic diatoms using ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) in addition to the existing phytoplankton groups in the sea-ice model. We found that different groups of primary producers exhibit distinct spatial and temporal variabilities in both the sea-ice and water column depending on their physiological and biogeochemical properties. In particular, we discovered that the biomass of pelagic diatoms during the bloom season is strongly influenced by the release of sympagic algal cells during the early spring. This suggests the potential significance of sympagic algae seeding for the occurrence of pelagic diatom blooms in the Amundsen Sea. Notably, our model also indicates a potential connection between the earlier peak in particulate organic carbon flux and the release of sympagic-algae-associated particles from the sea ice, followed by their rapid sinking. Previous studies relying solely on observational data did not fully account for this mechanism. Our findings emphasize the importance of understanding the role of sympagic algae in the polar ecosystem and carbon cycle, and shed light on the complex biogeochemical dynamics associated with the sea-ice ecosystem in the polar seas

Advancing projections of phytoplankton responses to climate change through ensemble modelling

A global trend of increasing health hazards associated with proliferation of toxin-producing cyanobacteria makes the ability to project phytoplankton dynamics of paramount importance. Whilst ensemble (multi-)modelling approaches have been used for a number of years to improve the robustness of weather forecasts this approach has until now never been adopted for ecosystem modelling. We show that the average simulated phytoplankton biomass derived from three different aquatic ecosystem models is generally superior to any of the three individual models in describing observed phytoplankton biomass in a typical temperate lake ecosystem, and we simulate a series of climate change projections. While this is the first multi-model ensemble approach applied for some of the most complex aquatic ecosystem models available, we consider it sets a precedent for what will become commonplace methodology in the future, as it enables increased robustness of model projections, and scenario uncertainty estimation due to differences in model structures

The vertical structure and entrainment of subglacial melt water plumes

Basal melting of marine-terminating glaciers, through its impact on the forces that control the flow of the glaciers, is one of the major factors determining sea level rise in a world of global warming. Detailed quantitative understanding of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in melt-water plumes underneath the ice-ocean interface is essential for calculating the subglacial melt rate. The aim of this study is therefore to develop a numerical model of high spatial and process resolution to consistently reproduce the transports of heat and salt from the ambient water across the plume into the glacial ice. Based on boundary layer relations for momentum and tracers, stationary analytical solutions for the vertical structure of subglacial non-rotational plumes are derived, including entrainment at the plume base. These solutions are used to develop and test convergent numerical formulations for the momentum and tracer fluxes across the ice-ocean interface. After implementation of these formulations into a water-column model coupled to a second-moment turbulence closure model, simulations of a transient rotational subglacial plume are performed. The simulated entrainment rate of ambient water entering the plume at its base is compared to existing entrainment parameterizations based on bulk properties of the plume. A sensitivity study with variations of interfacial slope, interfacial roughness and ambient water temperature reveals substantial performance differences between these bulk formulations. An existing entrainment parameterization based on the Froude number and the Ekman number proves to have the highest predictive skill. Recalibration to subglacial plumes using a variable drag coefficient further improves its performance

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: A community perspective

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary